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In the two-way trading field of forex investment, it is not recommended for young people with other career options to choose forex trading as a career path.
From the perspective of industry attributes, if we use traditional and emerging industries as the dividing line, the forex trading industry clearly falls into the category of traditional industries, and can even be defined as a sunset industry in its late stages of development. This attribute is even more evident when compared with emerging industries such as digital currencies or stablecoins.
The core reason why it is not recommended for young people with other career options to venture into the forex trading field is that the profit margin in this industry is inherently limited. Forex investment profits mainly rely on the exchange rate fluctuations between different currencies, and these exchange rate fluctuations themselves have clear boundary constraints. The limited fluctuation range directly determines that the expansion and extension of profits is difficult to break through. This means that even if young people achieve stable profits in the forex trading field and achieve relative career success, their final gains are often insufficient to cover daily living costs and cannot support a stable quality of life in the long term.
This conclusion is not a subjective conjecture, but an objective understanding derived from actual investment experience involving millions of dollars. Following the 2008 global financial crisis, central banks in many countries around the world have used the US dollar interest rate as the core anchor when formulating monetary policies. Interest rate policies across countries have gradually formed a substantial synergy and convergence, such as simultaneously implementing interest rate cuts or hikes in different economic cycles. This policy synergy has directly led to a continuous narrowing of interest rate differentials among the eight major currencies, significantly suppressing exchange rate volatility. Although after 2020, driven by some short-term unforeseen events, exchange rates experienced a period of fluctuation and rebound, the overall volatility remains at a low level in the long term. This low volatility pattern directly compresses the profit margins of forex trading, forcing investors to control risk by reducing position size and trading frequency. This change has had a particularly significant impact on short-term trading funds that heavily rely on exchange rate fluctuations, leading to a continuous decline in trading activity in the entire forex market.
For young people determined to enter the forex investment and trading field, the following question is likely to arise: If they are explicitly discouraged from getting involved, why are they still engaged in this industry themselves? In fact, the answer to this question is closely related to an individual's financial foundation and industry background. As the operator of a Chinese foreign trade factory, I accumulated millions of US dollars in reserves as early as 20 years ago. Due to the restrictions of China's foreign exchange control policies at the time, this offshore capital could not be directly remitted into the country. To achieve effective allocation and preservation of value, I spent 20 years deeply studying the foreign exchange investment and trading industry, gradually building a complete trading system and risk control logic. Twenty years of professional experience combined with millions of US dollars in initial capital enabled me to adopt a long-term, low-leverage, and stable investment strategy, consistently achieving an annualized return of over 10%. This level of return is far higher than the return from depositing funds in a bank for fixed-term wealth management, which is the core reason why I continue to work in this industry. It should be clarified that this level of return is completely unreplicable for small-capital short-term trading. In reality, small investors attempting to achieve stable annualized returns of over 30% through short-term trading often face the risk of margin calls or continuous losses. Even if they choose a long-term investment strategy and achieve a stable annualized return of 10%, the absolute return is still insufficient to cover daily living costs. This is an industry reality that young investors must face.
In the two-way trading system of foreign exchange investment, investors' choice of foreign exchange futures or foreign exchange spot as trading instruments is not a random decision, but rather needs to be based on a precise match between the core attributes, trading rules, and their own investment needs of the two types of instruments, with clear preconditions and constraints.
From the underlying differences in core transaction costs and matching strategies, the most significant difference between foreign exchange futures and foreign exchange spot lies in the presence or absence of overnight interest: foreign exchange futures trading does not generate overnight interest, while foreign exchange spot trading is accompanied by an overnight interest payment mechanism. This difference directly determines the direction of strategy matching for the two types of instruments—foreign exchange spot naturally possesses the basic conditions for carry trades, while foreign exchange futures, due to the lack of overnight interest payment logic, are inherently unsuitable for long-term carry trade strategies. Meanwhile, foreign exchange futures have clear holding period restrictions. In practice, it is essential to strictly adhere to the principle that "the holding period should not exceed the cycle of a single main contract (usually within 3 months)," resolutely avoiding rollover operations before contract expiration to eliminate additional costs and potential risks incurred during the rollover process.
For large funds of millions of dollars, when implementing a long-term carry trade strategy, prioritizing spot foreign exchange over futures offers three main advantages. First, there is no rollover hassle and the holding period is flexible. As long as investors have a clear understanding of the current and future currency interest rate differentials, they can hold spot positions for a long time without frequent contract rollovers, effectively reducing slippage losses and transaction costs from frequent trading. In contrast, the costs incurred by rollover operations in foreign exchange futures continuously erode investment returns, making it far less cost-effective than spot in the long run. Secondly, interest rate differentials offer a stable compounding effect. Overnight interest on spot foreign exchange contracts is automatically credited daily. As the holding period lengthens, interest income accumulates and compoundes, making the returns on long-term investments more predictable. Furthermore, investors can accurately calculate annualized returns based on current interest rate differentials, facilitating clear investment planning. Thirdly, it is more suitable for large funds. The overall liquidity of the spot foreign exchange market is far superior to that of the futures market. Inflows and outflows of millions of dollars will not significantly impact market prices, nor will insufficient liquidity cause prices to deviate from expectations. In contrast, liquidity in foreign exchange futures is mainly concentrated in the main contract, while liquidity in non-main contracts is relatively scarce. Large funds are highly susceptible to additional hidden costs due to market price fluctuations during position rollovers.
It is important to clarify that foreign exchange futures are a relatively niche investment product, with their main trading market concentrated in the United States. This geographical limitation further restricts their liquidity coverage. In actual trading, even if an investor has a strong desire to invest in a particular foreign exchange futures contract, the transaction cannot be successfully completed if there is a lack of corresponding sell orders in the market. Foreign exchange futures employ a counterparty trading mechanism; without a matching counterparty, it means that opening or closing a position cannot be completed. This liquidity risk is a core issue that must be addressed when choosing foreign exchange futures.
From a theoretical perspective, the only potential advantage of foreign exchange futures for large-capital investors lies in risk hedging in specific market scenarios: when the trend of a currency pair moves in the opposite direction to the current interest rate differential, and the investor's interest costs have accumulated excessively due to long-term holding of the spot market for arbitrage, they can hedge the price fluctuation risk of the spot position by deploying foreign exchange futures, leveraging the fact that futures do not have overnight interest to avoid the additional burden caused by the accumulation of interest rate differentials. However, this advantage is entirely based on idealized market conditions. If there is a lack of sufficient sell orders in the market, investors still cannot establish a sufficient futures hedging position, and even if they want to use futures to avoid the risk of interest rate differential accumulation from long-term holding of the spot market, it will be difficult to implement successfully.
In two-way forex trading, many traders may "know" but haven't truly "done" it—a crucial journey must be traversed between the two.
To bridge this gap, the key lies in extensive and systematic testing and empirical verification of one's trading philosophy, strategies, and methods. Continuously obtaining positive feedback through repeated practice, until unwavering trust is established, allows for stable execution and consistency between knowledge and action in real-world trading.
In the realm of foreign exchange investment trading, "enlightenment" is not some abstract concept, but rather manifests as a series of observable and verifiable professional capabilities: First, the trader has developed a logically rigorous, clearly defined, and market-tested trading methodology, providing a consistent and clear operational basis when facing complex and ever-changing market conditions. Second, this methodology has been internalized into a well-structured, clearly defined, and risk-controlled trading system, making the entire trading process highly systematic, disciplined, and repeatable. Third, the trader demonstrates strong practical skills with this system, consistently and steadily achieving profitability in different market environments, rather than relying on chance or luck.
However, it is crucial to recognize that "enlightenment" essentially only signifies finding the correct trading direction and underlying logic; it is merely the starting point of a long journey. From initial enlightenment to "proving the way" through long-term practice, and finally to stable profitability and the complete maturation of the trading system, countless refinements, corrections, and psychological tempering are required. There are no shortcuts on this path; only with a rigorous attitude, scientific methods, and unwavering execution can one truly reach the other side.
In the forex two-way investment market, the chart timeframe chosen by short-term traders is one of the core factors influencing the quality of their trading decisions and results.
Generally, the shorter the chart timeframe chosen by short-term traders, the denser the short-term signals presented by market fluctuations, and the more seemingly valuable price points appear. These dense short-term signals often create numerous trading temptations. Simultaneously, market trends within short timeframes are more significantly affected by sudden factors such as instant news and short-term fund flows, leading to a substantial decrease in trend stability. This, in turn, increases the probability that short-term traders will misjudge market trends and make irrational trading decisions.
In the forex trading arena, the most significant trading traps stem from excessive trading temptations. These temptations are not merely misleading market signals, but rather a combination of factors, including deceptive short-term fluctuations, false breakouts, and manipulation of market sentiment to induce buying or selling. Many forex investors are easily misled by these superficial market fluctuations, equating short-term volatility with trading opportunities, while ignoring the high leverage and liquidity inherent in the forex market, as well as the randomness and uncertainty of short-term trends.
From the core connection between forex investors and market opportunities, the various trading opportunities that appear on the surface often conceal numerous undetected trading traps. This "illusion of opportunity" is particularly prominent in short-term trading scenarios. Many seemingly quick-profit entry points are actually deliberate bullish or bearish signals created by market funds. If investors blindly follow these signals, they are easily trapped in losses.
There is a clear positive correlation between market allure, illusory opportunities, and trading cycles. Specifically, the shorter the trading cycle an investor focuses on, the more frequent the short-term fluctuation signals appear in the market, resulting in more seemingly feasible entry and exit points and stronger trading temptations. Conversely, if a longer trading cycle is used, market fluctuation signals become more condensed, and ineffective temptations decrease. At the same time, the trading cycle is also closely related to the authenticity of market opportunities and trend stability. The shorter the cycle, the more apparent opportunities the market presents, but most of these opportunities are false opportunities brought about by short-term fluctuations, lacking sustained trend support, leading to extremely poor trend stability and significantly reduced sustainability of profits. Trading opportunities presented over longer cycles, although relatively fewer in number, often have stronger trend support, higher stability, and greater actual trading value. This is one of the core reasons why short-term forex trading is riskier and more difficult to profit from compared to medium- and long-term trading.
In two-way forex trading, understanding the market is important, but understanding oneself is even more crucial.
Many forex investors, despite years of experience in the market, are able to interpret candlestick charts, grasp fund flows and sentiment trends, and have developed their own trading methods and systems, still consistently suffer losses in actual trading. The root cause is often not the strategy itself, but a lack of execution—even with clear trading logic and a mature system, if it cannot be strictly implemented in real-world trading, losses are inevitable.
Therefore, when facing losses in live trading or execution deviations, investors urgently need to introspect: Have they truly taken the time to understand themselves? Only by deeply understanding their own psychological traits, behavioral habits, risk tolerance, and level of discipline, and clearly identifying their strengths and weaknesses, can they effectively implement their trading system and achieve the leap from "understanding" to "doing it right."
In short, forex trading is not only a game against the market, but also a deep examination and management of oneself.
13711580480@139.com
+86 137 1158 0480
+86 137 1158 0480
+86 137 1158 0480
z.x.n@139.com
Mr. Z-X-N
China · Guangzhou